Season 45 of Survivor wrapped up a few weeks ago. I think it’s the best reality show on TV.1
This season, I was particularly entertained by Emily Flippen, a contestant with the occupation of “investment analyst”.
Emily’s first action of the season was publicly calling out another contestant. It was a miscalculation on her part. It put a huge target on her back before the game even started.
After splitting up into different tribes, things did not get better. Emily was portrayed as a know-it-all. She was the person getting on everyone’s nerves around camp.
Her tribe proceeded to lose the first immunity challenge and they headed to tribal council.
Emily was 100% going to be the first person voted out of the game.
In a stroke of luck, one of Emily’s tribe mates decided Survivor wasn’t for her. She quit, saving Emily from having her torch snuffed.
Emily used this lifeline to change how she played. She became more friendly. She stopped speaking her mind when it might tick off another player. She kept surviving as her original tribe faltered. She made it all the way to the final seven, before getting eliminated.
During her run, she pulled off a well-executed blindside vote on her opening day rival. But most impressive of all, she was a player people wanted to work with.
She “Flippen’d” the script.
How did Emily do this? She provided some insight during a confessional interview with show producers.
I’ll paraphrase: In her job as an investment analyst, she excels at running the numbers and analyzing stocks for the portfolios she manages. Initially, she treated the other players like they were numbers on a spreadsheet, not as human beings with their own feelings and emotions. Once she realized the key to surviving in the game was forming strong relationships instead of being overly cold and analytical, she became a dangerous player.
Emily revealed a key insight to going far in Survivor. But she also revealed a key insight to understanding investing.
Emily made it sound like investing is easy. You compile all the current financial information available for a company and plug it into a formula and then you’ll know what companies to buy and sell to beat the stock market. There are lots of people that think this way.
It’s true that the stock market is composed of thousands of companies that all have revenue, expenses, earnings, etc. But that’s not everything. The stock market also has millions of humans buying and selling those thousands of companies. And as Emily learned playing Survivor, those humans have feelings and emotions.
I’m reminded of a quote I heard author William Bernstein say during a panel at the 2023 Bogleheads conference (that he heard from the historian Robert Kaplan):
“The world is 50% geography and 50% Shakespeare.”
Bernstein said this applies directly to the world of investing. Markets are 50% underlying facts and numbers (fundamentals) and 50% stories and psychology (narratives).
There are many ways to calculate stock and market fundamentals, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Stories about future prospects of leaders (Elon Musk), companies (NVIDIA), industries (AI) and entire countries matter too.
I hope Emily takes the lesson she learned playing Survivor and realizes the world of investing isn’t strictly cold and analytical either.2 Humans are social creatures. We tell stories to each other. We feel fear and greed and joy and sadness. And we’re the ones clicking the buy and sell buttons.3
I can’t wait for Season 46.
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Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. I don’t know your personal circumstances and would never provide financial advice through this medium. This newsletter is intended to be educational and entertaining. Please consult a financial professional and do your own research before making any changes to your portfolio.
Love Island UK and The Golden Bachelor are close.
It’s very possible that she does realize this, but this was my takeaway about her investment beliefs. Survivor does edit a lot out!
Or programming the computers that buy and sell.